As much research as managers do before they join new clubs, whether it be watching old matches or analysing stats, they cannot truly come to conclusions on the players they’re inheriting until they’re on the training pitch and coaching them.
That’s true for Steve Cooper at Leicester City and it’s true for Enzo Maresca now at Chelsea. And after a few weeks of City’s old boss overseeing his new squad in the capital, it’s emerged that he wants a new goalkeeper. That’s troubling.
For now, the line is that Maresca likes Robert Sanchez and will install him as Chelsea’s number one this season, but that he wants someone to challenge and push him. And given Mads Hermansen was his first-choice goalkeeper target at City, Maresca will no doubt be telling Chelsea to consider the Dane.
When Maresca moved to Stamford Bridge, Hermansen was top of the list of City players he was predicted to poach, above Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. Having a goalkeeper who is both talented and composed with the ball at his feet is integral to Maresca’s style of play and it felt, based on the quality of players he was inheriting versus those he was leaving behind, that Hermansen would give him an easy upgrade.
So how much would the 24-year-old cost if Chelsea did come calling? A figure emerged over the weekend explaining that City value the Dane at £45m. For those who don’t follow the club closely, that may seem steep for a goalkeeper who cost just £6.5m a year ago, even if he did earn a spot in the Championship team of the season.
But City fans may say that’s not enough. Because while there were an abundance of lessons to be learned from their last relegation, one that stands out is how important a good goalkeeper is. In short, it can be the difference between staying up and going down, and that’s worth far more than £45m.
Look at the statistics for the 22-23 season, and the worst-performing keepers by the measure of post-shot expected goals – how likely shots on target faced by a keeper will find the net based on the league average – were Gavin Bazunu, Illan Meslier, Dean Henderson, and Danny Ward. Among that quartet are the number ones for the three teams who went down, Southampton and Leeds joining City in the drop zone.
Henderson, meanwhile, did not get his place back at Nottingham Forest after he picked up an injury, and so only played half the season. Keylor Navas finished the campaign in goal and Forest stayed up. That looks decisive.
Based on the data, City were expected to concede 55 goals from the shots on target they faced, only the sixth-worst in the division. They actually conceded 68 goals. Meanwhile at another relegation rival in Everton, the stats said they should have conceded 60 goals. With Jordan Pickford between the sticks, they let in 57.
Going into this season with Hermansen corrects that issue. Because not only is he excellent with his feet, he keeps the ball out of the net too. No keeper in the Championship performed as well as Hermansen did by that metric last season, the Dane preventing six more goals than he was expected to concede.
Now, City could probably sign a very good goalkeeper, and with change to spare, by selling Hermansen for £45m. But there would be no guarantees a new man would fit in at City. Good players flop at new clubs all of the time.
With Hermansen, City do have guarantees. They have a year of evidence that he’s capable of dealing with the pressure of being a number one, that he works well in tandem with the defenders at the club, and that he fits in with the group as a whole.
In short, keeping him is their safest bet. If a big offer came in, it would definitely be tempting, given the huge profit they could make. But to stay up, City have to show they have learned lessons from two seasons ago. Rejecting any advances for Hermansen and keeping him as their number one would be evidence that one of the problems of their relegation has been understood and addressed.
